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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 7 at the 12

Cincinnati Bengals 20 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 2-E.McPherson 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-4-D.Chrisman.

The Three Options

GO +2.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.76 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 12, worth +0.43 EP
KICK +2.42 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.53 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 22, worth -0.33 EP
PUNT +0.53 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth +0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model