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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 7 at the 72

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(14:16) 4-D.Chrisman punts 51 yards to CLE 21, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 11-D.Peoples-Jones to CLE 24 for 3 yards (23-D.Hill).

The Three Options

GO -1.22 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.30 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 72, worth -4.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 30, worth -1.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model