DEN @ BAL — 4th & Data

← Home

Away

Denver Broncos

HC Nathaniel Hackett

Home

Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh

Sunday 2022-12-04 · 13:00 M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore US ☀️ Clear Spread 9.5 O/U 40.5

Win Probability

DEN

28.8%

BAL

71.2%

☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

DEN offense: -0.120 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
Russell Wilson (DEN): -0.036 EPA/dropback in prior starts
DEN defense: -0.075 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
BAL defense: -0.030 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (10th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

DEN 18

–

BAL 25

Projected margin: BAL by 7 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

DEN

Dakota Allen LB Out Hamstring

Andrew Beck TE Out Hamstring

K.J. Hamler WR Out Hamstring

Jonathan Harris DE Out Knee

Courtland Sutton WR Questionable Illness

Jerry Jeudy WR Questionable Ankle

K'Waun Williams CB Questionable Wrist

BAL

Tylan Wallace WR Out Hamstring

Del'Shawn Phillips LB Questionable Quadricep

Ronnie Stanley T Questionable Ankle

Kyle Hamilton S Questionable Knee

Marlon Humphrey CB Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DEN 9

–

BAL 10

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 24 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 09:09 FG DEN (9:09) 8-B.McManus 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-17-C.Waitman. DEN 3 – BAL 0
Q2 05:58 FG BAL (5:58) 9-J.Tucker 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout. DEN 3 – BAL 3
Q2 00:42 FG DEN (:42) 8-B.McManus 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-17-C.Waitman. DEN 6 – BAL 3
Q3 04:03 FG DEN (4:03) 8-B.McManus 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-17-C.Waitman. DEN 9 – BAL 3
Q4 00:31 TD BAL (:31) (Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 9 – BAL 9

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 DEN 4th & 6 at the 34

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 36% p(FG) 69%

(9:09) 8-B.McManus 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-17-C.Waitman.
Q1 BAL 4th & 5 at the 72

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 46%

(7:58) 11-J.Stout punts 52 yards to DEN 20, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 12-M.Washington.
Q1 DEN 4th & 1 at the 71

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.94 EP

p(convert) 70%

(6:08) 17-C.Waitman punts 39 yards to BAL 32, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, downed by DEN-32-D.Turner-Yell.
Q1 BAL 4th & 7 at the 53

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 38% p(FG) 22%

(2:31) 11-J.Stout punts 34 yards to DEN 19, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 12-M.Washington.
Q1 DEN 4th & 5 at the 76

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 45%

(:59) 17-C.Waitman punts 46 yards to BAL 30, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay.
Q2 BAL 4th & 2 at the 62

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP

p(convert) 60%

(14:11) 11-J.Stout punts 53 yards to DEN 9, Center-46-N.Moore. 12-M.Washington to DEN 14 for 5 yards (43-J.Hill).
Q2 DEN 4th & 2 at the 65

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP

p(convert) 59%

(11:06) 17-C.Waitman punts 35 yards to BAL 30, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, downed by DEN-53-J.Cooper.
Q2 BAL 4th & 7 at the 8

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 33% p(FG) 97%

(5:58) 9-J.Tucker 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
Q2 DEN 4th & 5 at the 71

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 44%

(4:29) 17-C.Waitman punts 42 yards to BAL 29, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay.
Q2 BAL 4th & 2 at the 63

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP

p(convert) 60%

(3:08) 11-J.Stout punts 56 yards to DEN 7, Center-46-N.Moore, downed by BAL-25-K.Seymour.
Q2 DEN 4th & 1 at the 23

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP

p(convert) 65% p(FG) 88%

(:42) 8-B.McManus 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-17-C.Waitman.
Q3 BAL 4th & 4 at the 67

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 49%

(11:19) 11-J.Stout punts 63 yards to DEN 4, Center-46-N.Moore. 12-M.Washington to DEN 18 for 14 yards (86-N.Boyle; 46-N.Moore).
Q3 DEN 4th & 3 at the 58

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP

p(convert) 51%

(8:03) 17-C.Waitman punts 46 yards to BAL 12, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay.
Q3 DEN 4th & 2 at the 32

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP

p(convert) 55% p(FG) 73%

(4:03) 8-B.McManus 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-17-C.Waitman.
Q4 BAL 4th & 1 at the 44

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 69% p(FG) 43%

(14:23) (Shotgun) 77-D.Faalele reported in as eligible. 2-T.Huntley up the middle to DEN 42 for 2 yards (47-J.Jewell; 49-A.Singleton).
Q4 DEN 4th & 15 at the 69

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 27%

(9:20) 17-C.Waitman punts 41 yards to BAL 28, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 13-D.Duvernay pushed ob at BAL 31 for 3 yards (53-J.Cooper).
Q4 BAL 4th & 5 at the 64

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 45%

(7:43) 11-J.Stout punts 45 yards to DEN 19, Center-46-N.Moore. 12-M.Washington to DEN 19 for no gain (25-K.Seymour).
Q4 DEN 4th & 11 at the 48

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 29% p(FG) 33%

(5:11) 17-C.Waitman punts 39 yards to BAL 9, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, downed by DEN-26-M.Boone.
Q4 BAL 4th & 1 at the 82 late-game

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 73%

(4:22) Direct snap to 89-M.Andrews. 89-M.Andrews up the middle to BAL 19 for 1 yard (49-A.Singleton; 47-J.Jewell).
Q4 BAL 4th & 2 at the 18 late-game

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.35 EP

p(convert) 55% p(FG) 93%

(1:06) (Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley left tackle to DEN 15 for 3 yards (47-J.Jewell).