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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 23

Denver Broncos 3 – Baltimore Ravens 3

What Actually Happened

(:42) 8-B.McManus 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-17-C.Waitman.

The Three Options

GO +2.45 EP
Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.06 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 23, worth -0.51 EP
KICK +1.94 EP
What Happened
  • 88% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.34 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 33, worth -0.99 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP