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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 2 at the 62

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(14:11) 11-J.Stout punts 53 yards to DEN 9, Center-46-N.Moore. 12-M.Washington to DEN 14 for 5 yards (43-J.Hill).

The Three Options

GO +0.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.33 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 62, worth -3.20 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.48 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 21, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP