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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 7 at the 53

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(2:31) 11-J.Stout punts 34 yards to DEN 19, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 12-M.Washington.

The Three Options

GO -0.48 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +3.17 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 53, worth -2.74 EP
KICK -1.49 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 15, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model