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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 11 at the 48

Denver Broncos 9 – Baltimore Ravens 3

What Actually Happened

(5:11) 17-C.Waitman punts 39 yards to BAL 9, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, downed by DEN-26-M.Boone.

The Three Options

GO -0.67 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.08 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 48, worth -2.21 EP
KICK -0.83 EP
  • 33% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 67% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.22 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 14, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model