4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 4 at the 67

Baltimore Ravens 3 – Denver Broncos 6

What Actually Happened

(11:19) 11-J.Stout punts 63 yards to DEN 4, Center-46-N.Moore. 12-M.Washington to DEN 18 for 14 yards (86-N.Boyle; 46-N.Moore).

The Three Options

GO -0.92 EP
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +2.03 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 67, worth -3.79 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 25, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model