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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 6 at the 34

Denver Broncos 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(9:09) 8-B.McManus 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-17-C.Waitman.

The Three Options

GO +0.24 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.09 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 34, worth -1.97 EP
KICK +0.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 31% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 44, worth -2.65 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model