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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 71

Denver Broncos 3 – Baltimore Ravens 3

What Actually Happened

(4:29) 17-C.Waitman punts 42 yards to BAL 29, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay.

The Three Options

GO -1.66 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.45 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 71, worth -4.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 29, worth -1.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model