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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 2 at the 32

Denver Broncos 6 – Baltimore Ravens 3

What Actually Happened

(4:03) 8-B.McManus 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-17-C.Waitman.

The Three Options

GO +1.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.71 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 32, worth -1.81 EP
KICK +0.50 EP
What Happened
  • 73% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.57 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 42, worth -2.43 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP