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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 1 at the 44

Baltimore Ravens 3 – Denver Broncos 9

What Actually Happened

(14:23) (Shotgun) 77-D.Faalele reported in as eligible. 2-T.Huntley up the middle to DEN 42 for 2 yards (47-J.Jewell; 49-A.Singleton).

The Three Options

GO +1.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.08 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 44, worth -1.74 EP
KICK -0.25 EP
  • 43% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.52 EP
  • 57% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.32 EP
PUNT +0.38 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 12, worth +0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model