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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 2 at the 65

Denver Broncos 3 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(11:06) 17-C.Waitman punts 35 yards to BAL 30, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, downed by DEN-53-J.Cooper.

The Three Options

GO -0.52 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.79 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 65, worth -3.82 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -1.28 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 23, worth -1.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP