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CLE Away

Cleveland Browns

HC Kevin Stefanski
@
HOU Home

Houston Texans

HC Lovie Smith
Sunday 2022-12-04 · 13:00 NRG Stadium, Houston US 🏟 Dome Spread -7.5 O/U 47.0

Win Probability

CLE
61.7%
HOU
38.3%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • HOU offense: -0.150 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • HOU defense: +0.097 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • QB edge to CLE: Kyle Allen (HOU) -0.244 vs Deshaun Watson (CLE) -0.174 EPA/dropback (CLE starting Deshaun Watson in place of Jacoby Brissett)
  • CLE defense: +0.101 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • CLE offense: +0.022 EPA/play over its last 8 games (15th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CLE 24
–
HOU 19
Projected margin: CLE by 5 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

CLE

David Njoku TE Out Knee

HOU

Brandin Cooks WR Out Calf
Derek Stingley CB Out Hamstring
Rex Burkhead RB Questionable Concussion

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CLE 27
–
HOU 14

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:06 FG HOU (8:06) 7-K.Fairbairn 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston. CLE 0 – HOU 3
  • Q2 12:00 SAF HOU (12:00) 74-C.Hubbard reported in as eligible. 24-N.Chubb up the middle tackled in End Zone for -1 yards, SAFETY (91-R.Lopez). CLE 0 – HOU 5
  • Q2 04:00 TD CLE (4:00) 11-C.Johnston punts 60 yards to CLE 24, Center-46-J.Weeks. 11-D.Peoples-Jones for 76 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 6 – HOU 5
  • Q3 10:15 TD CLE (10:15) 67-C.Heck reported in as eligible. 3-K.Allen up the middle to HOU 2 for 1 yard (42-T.Fields). FUMBLES (42-T.Fields), RECOVERED by CLE-21-D.Ward at HOU 4. 21-D.Ward for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 13 – HOU 5
  • Q3 05:11 FG HOU (5:11) 7-K.Fairbairn 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston. CLE 14 – HOU 8
  • Q4 09:40 FG CLE (9:40) 3-C.York 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. CLE 17 – HOU 8
  • Q4 09:36 TD CLE (9:36) 3-K.Allen pass short middle intended for 33-D.Ogunbowale INTERCEPTED by 42-T.Fields (69-C.Winovich) at HOU 16. 42-T.Fields for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 23 – HOU 8
  • Q4 04:06 FG CLE (4:06) 3-C.York 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. CLE 27 – HOU 8
  • Q4 02:00 TD HOU (2:00) (Shotgun) 3-K.Allen pass short middle to 12-N.Collins for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 27 – HOU 14

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 3 at the 50
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.03 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 35%

    (14:11) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 40 yards to HOU 10, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 25-D.King.

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 3 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (12:47) 11-C.Johnston punts 48 yards to CLE 24, Center-46-J.Weeks. 11-D.Peoples-Jones to CLE 30 for 6 yards (33-D.Ogunbowale).

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 19 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 87%

    (8:06) 7-K.Fairbairn 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 63% p(FG) 99%

    (13:06) 67-C.Heck reported in as eligible. 3-K.Allen pass incomplete short left to 34-T.Hairston (22-G.Delpit). HOU-34-T.Hairston was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 5 at the 44
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 50%

    (9:46) 11-C.Johnston punts 43 yards to CLE 1, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-1-T.Smith.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 1 at the 64
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.05 EP
    p(convert) 73%

    (5:30) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 56 yards to HOU 8, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-10-A.Schwartz.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 2 at the 84
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP
    p(convert) 62%

    (4:00) 11-C.Johnston punts 60 yards to CLE 24, Center-46-J.Weeks. 11-D.Peoples-Jones for 76 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 6 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 35%

    (1:31) 11-C.Johnston punts 41 yards to CLE 9, Center-46-J.Weeks, out of bounds.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 4 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (:46) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 67 yards to HOU 6, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 25-D.King to HOU 26 for 20 yards (48-M.Brown).

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 3 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (:16) 11-C.Johnston punts 47 yards to CLE 20, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 11-D.Peoples-Jones.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 6 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 44%

    (10:47) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 44 yards to HOU 2, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-38-A.Green. PENALTY on HOU-25-D.King, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 1 yard, enforced at HOU 2.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 5 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 94%

    (5:11) 7-K.Fairbairn 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 6 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 32%

    (1:42) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 40 yards to HOU 11, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 25-D.King to HOU 19 for 8 yards (47-C.Hughlett; 69-C.Winovich).

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 9 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (:45) 11-C.Johnston punts 51 yards to CLE 29, Center-46-J.Weeks. 11-D.Peoples-Jones to CLE 33 for 4 yards (53-B.Cashman).

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 6 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 87%

    (9:40) 3-C.York 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 10 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (7:54) 11-C.Johnston punts 64 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Weeks, Touchback.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 6 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (5:43) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 64 yards to HOU 12, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 25-D.King to HOU 26 for 14 yards (51-J.Kunaszyk). FUMBLES (51-J.Kunaszyk), RECOVERED by CLE-42-T.Fields at HOU 33. 42-T.Fields to HOU 32 for 1 yard (38-J.Francis). CLE-44-S.Takitaki was injured during the play.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 2 at the 24 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 88%

    (4:06) 3-C.York 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 3 at the 45 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 47%

    (2:41) (Shotgun) 3-K.Allen pass deep left to 15-C.Moore to CLE 6 for 39 yards (33-R.Harrison; 54-D.Jones). CLE-33-R.Harrison was injured during the play.