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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 9 at the 80

Houston Texans 8 – Cleveland Browns 14

What Actually Happened

(:45) 11-C.Johnston punts 51 yards to CLE 29, Center-46-J.Weeks. 11-D.Peoples-Jones to CLE 33 for 4 yards (53-B.Cashman).

The Three Options

GO -2.31 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.42 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 80, worth -4.48 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 37, worth -1.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model