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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 6 at the 50

Houston Texans 5 – Cleveland Browns 7

What Actually Happened

(1:31) 11-C.Johnston punts 41 yards to CLE 9, Center-46-J.Weeks, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.99 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 50, worth -2.52 EP
KICK -0.97 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.96 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.52 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 14, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model