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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 3 at the 45

Houston Texans 8 – Cleveland Browns 27

What Actually Happened

(2:41) (Shotgun) 3-K.Allen pass deep left to 15-C.Moore to CLE 6 for 39 yards (33-R.Harrison; 54-D.Jones). CLE-33-R.Harrison was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO +0.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.31 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 45, worth -1.42 EP
KICK +0.09 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -1.68 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 12, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model