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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 2 at the 24

Cleveland Browns 24 – Houston Texans 8

What Actually Happened

(4:06) 3-C.York 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +2.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +3.98 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 24, worth -0.50 EP
KICK +1.86 EP
What Happened
  • 88% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.25 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 34, worth -1.13 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model