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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 3 at the 67

Houston Texans 5 – Cleveland Browns 7

What Actually Happened

(:16) 11-C.Johnston punts 47 yards to CLE 20, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 11-D.Peoples-Jones.

The Three Options

GO -0.83 EP
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +0.46 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 67, worth -2.30 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 25, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model