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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 3 at the 50

Cleveland Browns 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(14:11) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 40 yards to HOU 10, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 25-D.King.

The Three Options

GO -0.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.78 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 50, worth -3.30 EP
KICK -1.68 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.36 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -3.30 EP
PUNT -1.03 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 14, worth -1.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.03 EP