Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 6 at the 76

Cleveland Browns 24 – Houston Texans 8

What Actually Happened

(5:43) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 64 yards to HOU 12, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 25-D.King to HOU 26 for 14 yards (51-J.Kunaszyk). FUMBLES (51-J.Kunaszyk), RECOVERED by CLE-42-T.Fields at HOU 33. 42-T.Fields to HOU 32 for 1 yard (38-J.Francis). CLE-44-S.Takitaki was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -1.66 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.26 EP
54% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 76, worth -4.13 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model