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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 19 at the 25

Houston Texans 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(8:06) 7-K.Fairbairn 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +0.75 EP
  • 21% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.77 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25, worth -0.56 EP
KICK +1.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 35, worth -1.51 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model