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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 5 at the 44

Houston Texans 5 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(9:46) 11-C.Johnston punts 43 yards to CLE 1, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-1-T.Smith.

The Three Options

GO +0.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.47 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 44, worth -2.26 EP
KICK -0.49 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.69 EP
PUNT -0.58 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 12, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP