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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 5 at the 17

Houston Texans 5 – Cleveland Browns 14

What Actually Happened

(5:11) 7-K.Fairbairn 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +1.65 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.17 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 17, worth -0.53 EP
KICK +1.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 27, worth -0.89 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model