4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
BAL Away

Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh
@
JAX Home

Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Doug Pederson
Sunday 2022-11-27 · 13:00 TIAA Bank Stadium, Jacksonville US 🌧 Rain Spread -3.5 O/U 43.0

Win Probability

BAL
42.7%
JAX
57.3%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • JAX on 7 more days rest than BAL
  • JAX defense: +0.060 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
  • BAL offense: +0.026 EPA/play over its last 8 games (16th in the league)
  • JAX offense: +0.034 EPA/play over its last 8 games (14th in the league)
  • Wind 19 mph

Predicted Final Score

BAL 21
–
JAX 23
Projected margin: JAX by 2 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

BAL

Jalyn Armour-Davis CB Out Hip
Ronnie Stanley T Out Ankle
Kyle Hamilton S Questionable Knee
Gus Edwards RB Questionable Hamstring
Demarcus Robinson WR Questionable Hip
Devin Duvernay WR Questionable Hamstring
Isaiah Likely TE Questionable Ankle

JAX

No players on the report.

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BAL 27
–
JAX 28

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 11 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:28 FG BAL (9:28) 9-J.Tucker 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout. BAL 3 – JAX 0
  • Q1 02:08 FG BAL (2:08) 9-J.Tucker 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout. BAL 6 – JAX 0
  • Q2 10:03 TD JAX (10:03) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep right to 22-J.Hasty for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN [93-C.Campbell]. BAL 6 – JAX 6
  • Q2 04:56 FG BAL (4:56) 9-J.Tucker 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout. BAL 9 – JAX 7
  • Q2 00:14 FG JAX (:14) 10-R.Patterson 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. BAL 9 – JAX 10
  • Q3 07:56 FG BAL (7:56) 9-J.Tucker 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout. BAL 12 – JAX 10
  • Q4 13:13 TD BAL (13:13) 35-G.Edwards up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 18 – JAX 10
  • Q4 05:59 TD JAX (5:59) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 39-J.Agnew for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 19 – JAX 16
  • Q4 04:22 FG JAX (4:22) 10-R.Patterson 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. BAL 19 – JAX 20
  • Q4 02:10 TD BAL (2:10) 8-L.Jackson pass short left to 84-J.Oliver for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 25 – JAX 20
  • Q4 00:18 TD JAX (:18) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 11-M.Jones for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. BAL 27 – JAX 26

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 10 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 96%

    (9:28) 9-J.Tucker 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 1 at the 50
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 20%

    (6:06) 16-T.Lawrence up the middle to 50 for no gain (93-C.Campbell).

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 4 at the 12
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 95%

    (2:08) 9-J.Tucker 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (1:00) 9-L.Cooke punts 70 yards to end zone, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Touchback.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 1 at the 50
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71% p(FG) 20%

    (11:57) 8-L.Jackson right guard to 50 for no gain (23-F.Oluokun, 52-D.Hamilton). FUMBLES (52-D.Hamilton), RECOVERED by JAX-52-D.Hamilton at 50.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 10 at the 37
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 53%

    (4:56) 9-J.Tucker 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 98%

    (:14) 10-R.Patterson 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP
    p(convert) 55%

    (13:30) 9-L.Cooke punts 68 yards to end zone, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Touchback.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 6 at the 6
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 98%

    (7:56) 9-J.Tucker 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (6:22) 9-L.Cooke punts 68 yards to BAL 2, Center-46-R.Matiscik, downed by JAX-6-C.Claybrooks.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 10 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 15%

    (2:54) 11-J.Stout punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-46-N.Moore, Touchback.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 8 at the 45
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 31%

    (8:44) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep right to 7-Z.Jones pushed ob at BAL 18 for 27 yards (26-G.Stone).

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 5 at the 11 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 96%

    (4:22) 10-R.Patterson 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 5 at the 70 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (1:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 11-M.Jones to JAX 40 for 10 yards (21-B.Stephens).