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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 10 at the 10

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(9:28) 9-J.Tucker 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO +1.45 EP
  • 29% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.56 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 10, worth -0.27 EP
KICK +1.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model