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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 1 at the 50

Baltimore Ravens 6 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(11:57) 8-L.Jackson right guard to 50 for no gain (23-F.Oluokun, 52-D.Hamilton). FUMBLES (52-D.Hamilton), RECOVERED by JAX-52-D.Hamilton at 50.

The Three Options

GO +1.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.64 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 50, worth -2.79 EP
KICK -1.86 EP
  • 20% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 80% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.79 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 14, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model