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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
Baltimore Ravens
4th & 10 at the 53
Baltimore Ravens 12 – Jacksonville Jaguars 10
What Actually Happened
(2:54) 11-J.Stout punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-46-N.Moore, Touchback.
The Three Options
GO
-0.93 EP
-
34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.01 EP
- 66% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 53, worth -3.00 EP
KICK
-2.13 EP
- 15% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
- 85% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.84 EP
PUNT
-0.83 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
- Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 15, worth -0.83 EP
The Verdict
Chose PUNT
✓ matched the model
