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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 50

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Baltimore Ravens 3

What Actually Happened

(6:06) 16-T.Lawrence up the middle to 50 for no gain (93-C.Campbell).

The Three Options

GO +1.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +3.00 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 50, worth -2.42 EP
KICK -1.43 EP
  • 20% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.48 EP
  • 80% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.42 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 14, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model