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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 10 at the 37

Baltimore Ravens 6 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(4:56) 9-J.Tucker 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO +0.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.11 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 37, worth -1.79 EP
KICK -0.21 EP
What Happened
  • 53% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.96 EP
  • 47% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 46, worth -2.70 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP