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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 5 at the 70

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Baltimore Ravens 6

What Actually Happened

(1:00) 9-L.Cooke punts 70 yards to end zone, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.08 EP
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.96 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 70, worth -3.75 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 28, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model