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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 5 at the 11

Jacksonville Jaguars 17 – Baltimore Ravens 19

What Actually Happened

(4:22) 10-R.Patterson 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +1.92 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.37 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP
KICK +2.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 22, worth -0.70 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model