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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 6 at the 6

Baltimore Ravens 9 – Jacksonville Jaguars 10

What Actually Happened

(7:56) 9-J.Tucker 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO +2.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.78 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 6, worth +0.04 EP
KICK +1.78 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21, worth -0.85 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP