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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 4 at the 4

Jacksonville Jaguars 7 – Baltimore Ravens 9

What Actually Happened

(:14) 10-R.Patterson 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +2.93 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.86 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 4, worth +0.08 EP
KICK +2.86 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.91 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21, worth -0.06 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model