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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 8 at the 45

Jacksonville Jaguars 10 – Baltimore Ravens 19

What Actually Happened

(8:44) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep right to 7-Z.Jones pushed ob at BAL 18 for 27 yards (26-G.Stone).

The Three Options

GO -0.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.50 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 45, worth -2.14 EP
KICK -1.22 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.58 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 12, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model