CLE @ BUF — 4th & Data

← Home

Away

Cleveland Browns

HC Kevin Stefanski

Home

Buffalo Bills

HC Sean McDermott

Sunday 2022-11-20 · 13:00 Ford Field, Detroit US 🏟 Dome Spread 7.5 O/U 50.5

Win Probability

CLE

46.4%

BUF

53.6%

🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

Neutral site — no home-field edge
BUF offense: +0.113 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
CLE offense: +0.066 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
Josh Allen (BUF): +0.223 EPA/dropback in prior starts
CLE defense: +0.108 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

CLE 22

–

BUF 27

Projected margin: BUF by 5 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 11

CLE

D'Anthony Bell S Out Concussion

Michael Dunn G Out Back

Perrion Winfrey DT Out Concussion

Greg Newsome CB Out Concussion

David Njoku TE Questionable Ankle

BUF

Tremaine Edmunds LB Out Groin

Jake Kumerow WR Out Ankle

Gregory Rousseau DE Out Ankle

Kaiir Elam CB Questionable Ankle

Jordan Poyer S Questionable Elbow

Reggie Gilliam FB Questionable Illness

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CLE 23

–

BUF 31

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 09:08 TD CLE (9:08) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass deep right to 2-A.Cooper for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 6 – BUF 0
Q1 03:37 FG BUF (3:37) 2-T.Bass 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin. CLE 7 – BUF 3
Q2 14:08 FG CLE (14:08) 3-C.York 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. CLE 10 – BUF 3
Q2 04:58 FG BUF (4:58) 2-T.Bass 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin. CLE 10 – BUF 6
Q2 00:18 TD BUF (:18) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 14-S.Diggs for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 10 – BUF 12
Q3 09:48 FG BUF (9:48) 2-T.Bass 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin. CLE 10 – BUF 16
Q3 04:11 TD BUF (4:11) 26-D.Singletary up the middle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 10 – BUF 22
Q4 13:25 FG BUF (13:25) 2-T.Bass 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin. CLE 10 – BUF 25
Q4 06:48 FG BUF (6:48) 2-T.Bass 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin. CLE 10 – BUF 28
Q4 04:16 TD CLE (4:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 2-A.Cooper for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 16 – BUF 28
Q4 02:00 FG BUF (2:00) 2-T.Bass 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin. CLE 16 – BUF 31
Q4 00:25 TD CLE (:25) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 11-D.Peoples-Jones for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 22 – BUF 31

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 BUF 4th & 3 at the 58

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP

p(convert) 57%

(7:32) 8-S.Martin punts 47 yards to CLE 11, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 11-D.Peoples-Jones.
Q1 CLE 4th & 5 at the 84

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 49%

(5:29) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 44 yards to BUF 40, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 20-N.Hines pushed ob at CLE 32 for 28 yards (51-J.Kunaszyk).
Q1 BUF 4th & 2 at the 24

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP

p(convert) 59% p(FG) 88%

(3:37) 2-T.Bass 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
Q2 CLE 4th & 14 at the 14

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 25% p(FG) 96%

(14:08) 3-C.York 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
Q2 BUF 4th & 13 at the 72

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 34%

(11:57) 8-S.Martin punts 52 yards to CLE 20, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 11-D.Peoples-Jones. PENALTY on CLE-33-R.Harrison, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CLE 20.
Q2 BUF 4th & 14 at the 18

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 27% p(FG) 93%

(4:58) 2-T.Bass 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
Q2 CLE 4th & 15 at the 50

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 28% p(FG) 35%

(2:01) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 28 yards to BUF 22, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 20-N.Hines.
Q3 BUF 4th & 16 at the 38

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 28% p(FG) 64%

(9:48) 2-T.Bass 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
Q3 CLE 4th & 1 at the 27

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 68% p(FG) 85%

(5:57) 7-J.Brissett up the middle to BUF 27 for no gain (55-C.Basham; 30-D.Jackson).
Q3 CLE 4th & 10 at the 16

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 30% p(FG) 95%

(1:41) 3-C.York 34 yard field goal is BLOCKED (92-D.Jones), Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
Q4 BUF 4th & 7 at the 31

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 39% p(FG) 79%

(13:25) 2-T.Bass 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
Q4 CLE 4th & 17 at the 82

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 30%

(12:06) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 55 yards to BUF 27, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 20-N.Hines to BUF 36 for 9 yards (51-J.Kunaszyk; 10-A.Schwartz).
Q4 BUF 4th & 10 at the 10

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 31% p(FG) 97%

(6:48) 2-T.Bass 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
Q4 CLE 4th & 5 at the 70

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.37 EP

p(convert) 48%

(5:51) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 18-Dav.Bell pushed ob at CLE 36 for 6 yards (7-T.Johnson) [91-E.Oliver].
Q4 BUF 4th & 14 at the 21 late-game

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 28% p(FG) 91%

(2:00) 2-T.Bass 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.