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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 10 at the 10

Buffalo Bills 25 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(6:48) 2-T.Bass 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +1.05 EP
  • 31% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.24 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 10, worth -0.86 EP
KICK +1.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.30 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21, worth -1.43 EP
PUNT -0.93 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model