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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 14 at the 18

Buffalo Bills 3 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(4:58) 2-T.Bass 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +1.28 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.93 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 18, worth -0.48 EP
KICK +1.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 28, worth -1.17 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model