Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 5 at the 70

Cleveland Browns 10 – Buffalo Bills 28

(5:51) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 18-Dav.Bell pushed ob at CLE 36 for 6 yards (7-T.Johnson) [91-E.Oliver].

The Three Options

GO -1.06 EP

What Happened

48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.78 EP
52% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 70, worth -3.63 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.37 EP