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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 10 at the 16

Cleveland Browns 10 – Buffalo Bills 22

What Actually Happened

(1:41) 3-C.York 34 yard field goal is BLOCKED (92-D.Jones), Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +1.31 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.48 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 16, worth -0.46 EP
KICK +1.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26, worth -1.00 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model