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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 15 at the 50

Cleveland Browns 10 – Buffalo Bills 6

What Actually Happened

(2:01) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 28 yards to BUF 22, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 20-N.Hines.

The Three Options

GO -0.92 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.59 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 50, worth -2.66 EP
KICK -1.17 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 14, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model