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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 5 at the 84

Cleveland Browns 7 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(5:29) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 44 yards to BUF 40, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 20-N.Hines pushed ob at CLE 32 for 28 yards (51-J.Kunaszyk).

The Three Options

GO -2.37 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.38 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 84, worth -5.05 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -2.48 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 42, worth -2.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model