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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 7 at the 31

Buffalo Bills 22 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(13:25) 2-T.Bass 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +0.57 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.36 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 31, worth -1.89 EP
KICK +0.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.41 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 41, worth -2.57 EP
PUNT -0.72 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model