4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 3 at the 58

Buffalo Bills 0 – Cleveland Browns 7

What Actually Happened

(7:32) 8-S.Martin punts 47 yards to CLE 11, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 11-D.Peoples-Jones.

The Three Options

GO +0.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.62 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 58, worth -2.84 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.27 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 18, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP