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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 2 at the 24

Buffalo Bills 0 – Cleveland Browns 7

What Actually Happened

(3:37) 2-T.Bass 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +2.52 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.66 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 24, worth -0.62 EP
KICK +1.85 EP
What Happened
  • 88% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 34, worth -1.36 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP