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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 1 at the 27

Cleveland Browns 10 – Buffalo Bills 16

What Actually Happened

(5:57) 7-J.Brissett up the middle to BUF 27 for no gain (55-C.Basham; 30-D.Jackson).

The Three Options

GO +2.63 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.30 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 27, worth -0.96 EP
KICK +1.49 EP
  • 85% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 37, worth -1.84 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model