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Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh
@
NO Home

New Orleans Saints

HC Dennis Allen
Monday 2022-11-07 · 20:15 Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans US 🏟 Dome Spread -1.0 O/U 46.0

Win Probability

BAL
49.8%
NO
50.2%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • BAL offense: +0.064 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • BAL defense: +0.069 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • NO offense: +0.026 EPA/play over its last 8 games (15th in the league)
  • BAL on 3 more days rest than NO
  • QB edge to BAL: Andy Dalton (NO) -0.029 vs Lamar Jackson (BAL) -0.020 EPA/dropback (NO starting Andy Dalton in place of Jameis Winston)

Predicted Final Score

BAL 23
–
NO 24
Projected margin: NO by 1 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 9

BAL

Rashod Bateman WR Out Foot
Mark Andrews TE Doubtful Knee
Gus Edwards RB Doubtful Hamstring
Demarcus Robinson WR Questionable Groin
Marcus Peters CB Questionable Quadricep
Malik Harrison LB Questionable Foot
Patrick Mekari G Questionable Back

NO

Chase Hansen LB Out Knee
Mark Ingram RB Out Knee
Marshon Lattimore CB Out Abdomen
Jarvis Landry WR Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BAL 27
–
NO 13

Prediction missed by 15 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 01:30 TD BAL (1:30) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep right to 80-I.Likely for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 22, YAC 2 BAL 6 – NO 0
  • Q2 02:05 TD BAL (2:05) (Shotgun) 17-K.Drake right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 13 – NO 0
  • Q2 00:05 FG NO (:05) 3-W.Lutz 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin. BAL 14 – NO 3
  • Q3 08:29 FG BAL (8:29) 9-J.Tucker 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout. BAL 17 – NO 3
  • Q3 01:30 FG NO (1:30) 3-W.Lutz 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin. BAL 17 – NO 6
  • Q4 08:36 FG BAL (8:36) 9-J.Tucker 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout. BAL 20 – NO 6
  • Q4 07:02 TD BAL (7:02) (Shotgun) 17-K.Drake right guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 26 – NO 6
  • Q4 04:22 TD NO (4:22) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 83-J.Johnson for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 11, YAC 30 BAL 27 – NO 12

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NO 4th & 6 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (13:07) 4-B.Gillikin punts 45 yards to BAL 11, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay.

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 11 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (10:49) 11-J.Stout punts 67 yards to NO 16, Center-46-N.Moore, downed by BAL-43-J.Hill.

  • Q1 NO 4th & 1 at the 69
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.97 EP
    p(convert) 73%

    (8:32) 4-B.Gillikin punts 45 yards to BAL 24, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 16 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (15:00) 4-B.Gillikin punts 53 yards to BAL 33, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-17-K.White.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 9 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (11:53) 11-J.Stout punts 33 yards to NO 22, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 89-R.Shaheed.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 2 at the 70
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.80 EP
    p(convert) 63%

    (9:14) 4-B.Gillikin punts 51 yards to BAL 19, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 10 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 95%

    (:05) 3-W.Lutz 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 8 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 96%

    (8:29) 9-J.Tucker 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 13 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 93%

    (1:30) 3-W.Lutz 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (14:54) 11-J.Stout punts 52 yards to NO 23, Center-46-N.Moore. 89-R.Shaheed to NO 31 for 8 yards (14-K.Hamilton). INJURY UPDATE: NO 20-P.Werner, ankle, QUESTIONABLE; NO 92-M.Davenport, calf, QUESTIONABLE; BAL 15-D.Jackson, hamstring, QUESTIONABLE to return.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 16 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (13:18) 4-B.Gillikin punts 38 yards to BAL 37, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 14 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 90%

    (8:36) 9-J.Tucker 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 3 at the 76
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57%

    (5:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short left to 10-T.Smith to NO 31 for 7 yards (14-K.Hamilton). Pass 5, YAC 2

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 8 at the 52 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.55 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 30%

    (:29) 11-J.Stout punts 41 yards to NO 11, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 89-R.Shaheed.