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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 10 at the 15

New Orleans Saints 0 – Baltimore Ravens 14

What Actually Happened

(:05) 3-W.Lutz 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.

The Three Options

GO +1.01 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +3.34 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 15, worth +0.00 EP
KICK +2.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +3.00 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25, worth -0.00 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model