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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 14 at the 23

Baltimore Ravens 17 – New Orleans Saints 6

What Actually Happened

(8:36) 9-J.Tucker 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO +0.26 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.04 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 23, worth -1.44 EP
KICK +1.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.41 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 33, worth -1.84 EP
PUNT -0.80 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model