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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 6 at the 56

New Orleans Saints 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(13:07) 4-B.Gillikin punts 45 yards to BAL 11, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay.

The Three Options

GO -0.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +3.29 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 56, worth -2.84 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.34 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 17, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model